So we’ll look past all of the potential mechanical failures and getting caught up innocently in wrecks. But it’s a sure thing that one of the nine remaining Chase contenders will have a bad race. Who, of course, is the million-dollar question.
Using starts and finishes from races at California, all intermediate tracks and their last five races, we can make our best guess as to who will fare well on Sunday. Note that this isn’t an overall race prediction, but just a prediction on where the nine contenders will wind up.
The numbers are start/finish average in each of the following categories: (1) all-time at California, (2) 2006 intermediate track races, (3) last two years at intermediate races, (4) last five races overall.
Early next week, we’ll revisit this and see how we did.

KASEY KAHNE
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 8.6/13; (2) 2006: 9/6.75; (3) two-year average: 10/15.23; (4) last five: 11/21.
Trend: Tied for series lead with four wins, and all four came at intermediate tracks (Atlanta, Texas, Lowe’s, Michigan). Outside of wins, results have been among the best of the nine contenders. Reversing a trend of sub-par intermediate track finishes in 2005.
Predicted finish: 2.

MARK MARTIN
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 12.3/13.83; (2) 2006: 12.3/5.3; (3) two-year average: 12.2/7.15; (4) last five: 19.6/15.4.
Trend: Only one start and one finish outside of the top 20 at intermediate tracks this season. Results at California historically have been mixed, but trend upwards in the past two seasons. Has had top-five finishes in alternating weeks since New Hampshire; should be his turn for a good finish again.
Predicted finish: 3.

JEFF GORDON
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 12.5/12.3; (2) 2006: 10.5/10.83; (3) two-year average: 10.56/14.61; (4) last five: 10/7.8.
Trend: Historically strong at intermediate tracks and recently strong should add up to a good day for the 24. Could clinch berth into the Chase.
Predicted finish: 5.

KYLE BUSCH
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 12.75/14.5; (2) 2006: 19.17/12.33; (3) two-year average: 18.28/14.45; (4) last five: 17.6/13.
Trend: Will need a better qualifying effort than he’s had at mid-sized tracks this season — his 19.17 is second-worst of the nine. But Busch has shown the ability to make up lost ground. A top-10 will put him on, and possibly over, the verge of clinching.
Predicted finish: 8.

KEVIN HARVICK
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 23.25/21.88; (2) 2006: 13.5/15.75; (3) two-year average: 17.99/16.66; (4) last five: 8.2/6.2.
Trend: Hottest driver of the nine contenders, but goes to a track that, historically, has not been his best. Still, Harvick is much better at mid-sized tracks this season than he was a year ago. But it’s tough to turn a blind eye to history.
Predicted finish: 10.

DENNY HAMLIN
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 5/12; (2) 2006: 9.25/13.5; (3) two-year average: N/A; (4) last five: 8/7.2.
Trend: So little history makes it tough to get an accurate picture for the rookie. Until last week, his best finishes had been at intermediates and superspeedways. All of the numbers trend towards a top-15.
Predicted finish: 11.

JEFF BURTON
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 20.59/16.42; (2) 2006: 11.58/10.3; (3) two-year average: 20.51/14.13; (4) last five: 5.2/17.2.
Trend: Great qualifying, poor results as of late. Yet Burton’s intermediate results have improved dramatically since 2005 (29.43 average start, 17.96 average finish). A 42nd at Michigan broke an eight-race streak of 11th-place finishes or better at intermediate tracks.
Predicted finish: 13.

DALE EARNHARDT JR.
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 21.78/21.22; (2) 2006: 21/13.25; (3) two-year average: 22.65/17.1; (4) last five: 25/15.2.
Trend: Intermediate tracks have never been one of Junior’s — or DEI’s — strong suits. Only four of Earnhardt’s 18 career wins have come at intermediates, even though they comprise the majority of the schedule. Recent trends have been decidedly mixed as well; Earnhardt’s been either really good or really bad.
Predicted finish: 17.

TONY STEWART
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 15.3/18.7; (2) 2006: 15.17/21.92; (3) two-year average: 14.21/16.99; (4) last five: 18.2/8.4.
Trend: In winning the Nextel Cup championship a year ago, Stewart ran extremely well at mid-sized tracks (13.24 average start, 12.05 average finish). Those numbers have taken an extreme dive this season; he’s finishing nearly 10 spots worse than last year. Stewart’s incredible talent could be enough to erase the trend, but where there’s smoke…
Predicted finish: 20.

Marty Smith had a pretty vehement e-mail to his inbox complaining about the quality, or lack of it, on Saturday night.
The race was a complete 180 from the action-packed spring race, when there was more than enough time to secure a berth in the Chase. For the record, the top 10 after the spring race looked like this: Matt Kenseth, Kasey Kahne, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Casey Mears, Tony Stewart, Dale Jarrett.
But as the Chase draws near, those nine drivers still alive will only get more and more conservative, regardless of the venue and the fans’ feelings. If you’re Jeff Burton, why go crazy and risk wrecking and taking yourself out of the Chase?
This is the seedy underbelly of the Chase. While it promises us a dramatic finish — artificially so, some say — the final few races before the Chase will be boring. Nothing spectacular will happen at California. And depending on what happens there, Richmond may not be a thrill a minute either.
(In Richmond’s defense, the race will still be better than Bristol, because that 11th driver, whether it’s Kahne or someone else, will not have a tomorrow and will have to go for broke.)
It’s hard to fault anyone in this scenario. It’s like trying to find fault with the NFL teams who have clinched the top seed in their conference and use the final regular-season games as exhibitions. Is it the team’s fault because it played so well earlier? Of course not. Is it the league’s fault because it scheduled a playoff? Of course not. Is it the coach’s fault because he doesn’t want to risk injury to his star? Of course not.
It is what it is. And right now, it makes for very uneventful racing. The guys that have clinched a Chase spot might try an experimental setup that may or may not work. The guys that are in the top 10 don’t want to risk where they are. The guy who isn’t in wants to run as hard as he can, but without taking too great a gamble and falling further behind.
This is how it works. In four weeks, it won’t mean a thing because we’ll be in the thick of the Chase. We can sacrifice a few weekends for the excitement we’ll know we’ll get in a few weeks.

There were no spectacular, multi-car wrecks. In the spring, the race produced several Bristol-sized versions of The Big One, but Saturday’s race could not offer a repeat. The most dramatic was Clint Bowyer’s tire coming completely off its axle and landing on his hood as he slid near the wall out of turn 4.

(And if you think it’s wrong to bring that up, come on. We know better. Part — how much is debatable, but there’s no question it’s some part — of NASCAR’s appeal is watching cars do things they shouldn’t be doing and thanking the heavens that the driver walks away.)

There were no fits of rage, though the possibility was much-discussed in the pre-race network coverage. (And, in fairness, by me too.) One of the Ganassi drivers — Reed Sorenson or David Stremme, both of whom were involved in wrecks — was upset that Joe Nemechek “just ran over us,” or something to that effect, but controversy was held to a minimum.

It was a boring race, boring by any standards and nearly unwatchable by Bristol’s lofty standards. Mike Griffith of the Knoxville (Tenn.) News Sentinel nails it with this column.

Griffith says the talk afterwards surrounded how the race affected the points, not the usual Bristol hijinks.

Since that’s really all that’s left to talk about: Mark Martin sank like an anchor and is now in the precarious 10th position in the standings. Another bad race for Tony Stewart could put his chance to repeat in serious jeopardy. Back in 11th, Kasey Kahne ran well, finishing 12th, but still lost ground. He’s now 90 points behind Martin, who ran 28th.

Beyond Kahne, Greg Biffle is in 12th, a whopping 251 points behind Martin. Biffle may not officially be eliminated, but 251 points will be all but impossible to overcome in two races. If Biffle won at California and led the most laps (for 190 points) and Martin finished dead last, Biffle would still trail by 95 points going to Richmond.

With Kahne the only driver with a realistic chance at racing into the Chase, California and Richmond will determine who’s the odd man out.

While much of the hectic drama has been eliminated — the focus is solely on nine drivers, since Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson have clinched spots in the Chase — the final two races won’t be as chaotic, but will still be fun to watch.

While NASCAR has kept pushing for night races — mostly to get into prime time on the networks — it’s at least been a small attempt to recreate the magic at Bristol. Copying, of course, is never the same as the original.

What makes this one of the toughest tickets on the circuit, then?

Certainly there’s the promise of action: There are no clean races at a .533-mile track. If a team brings a car home with minimal damage, whether they finished in fifth or 25th, it’s a successful night in one respect.

Moreover, tempers flare at Bristol like few other places. With that action, perhaps there will be some spillover, too — a helmet toss, a retaliatory move or something like that.

And there’s never a lull in the action. At the start of the race, the full field will take up nearly half of the track; within 15 laps, as the field gets spread out, the frontrunners will push closer to the guys at the back of the pack. So if you’re sitting pretty far down, cars will fly by you constantly.

At a track like Pocono, most cars are within five seconds of each other; if you’re on the frontstretch and they’re on the backstretch, the only thing you hear is a distant roar. (A brief anecdote: While walking along pit road at Pocono once, I heard a huge roar from the stands and, a second later, saw the nearby teams getting their equipment ready for a stop; clearly the yellow was out, but for what, I had no idea. It all came together when I saw a crumpled, smoking mess cruising down pit road. It happened to be Jeff Gordon.)

That wouldn’t happen at Bristol. The action’s never far away, no matter where you’re sitting.

The final unique thing: It was a few years ago now, but I remember seeing an old race broadcast from Bristol. Back then, there was greenery visible just outside the retaining wall. The stands, though large, didn’t look insurmountable (at least not for a fat guy like me). The photo below tells you more than my words can.

Now, of course, Bristol is known as Thunder Valley. Massive seating areas and luxury boxes surround the track. And they definitely look insurmountable (unless I was walking down).

It all adds up to the singular best stock car racing experience of the season, bar none.

(Photo courtesy of NASCAR) Bristol in 1961, featuring, left to right, Bobby Johns, Fireball Roberts and Junior Johnson. According to NASCAR, the billboard is an advertisement for a bowling alley owned by Bristol’s builder and then-owner, Larry Carrier.

(Photo by Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images via NASCAR) Last year’s Busch night race at Bristol.