But there were too many other races where Biffle was no factor — mechanical issues or not — to be labeled a serious contender yet. The next few weeks will clarify the picture more.

For me, the race seemed to encapsulate what we expected from Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson.

Busch’s own mechanical difficulties, a broken sway bar early on, doomed him to a 34th-place finish. He was 12 laps off the lead and plummeted in the standings.

Johnson had a stout car, but gave up the lead to Biffle in the closing laps. He finished second.

That frames what has always been the key question surrounding a Busch-Johnson duel (and forgetting about Carl Edwards for a moment): Will Busch make a mistake? And how will Johnson capitalize on it?

Busch can’t be faulted the sway bar problem. He can be faulted for incurring the one-lap penalty at the competition problem; but if the car was so undriveable, what difference did one lap really make? Even if the race had played out the same way and Busch didn’t get the penalty, he still would have finished 34th.

Without a thorough knowledge of how the cars are put together, it’s impossible to tell if a crew member slipped up or if it was just awful luck.

Either way, these are problems that don’t seem to befall Johnson or his crew. We can make a pretty safe guess that, on the track, Johnson won’t make a mistake. We can guess that Busch, based on his aggressive style, has a better chance of making a mistake.

But in the end, what matters is what actually happened. Busch, for the first time in 2008, has a hole to climb out of.

There’s no question he can make up the ground. He can win at any track; and he has won at many tracks this season.

The problem for Busch now is that he must catch up while Johnson has the advantage. Johnson, most likely, can afford to cruise ahead and not have the same concerns that Busch would have.

And that, not Biffle’s win, is the biggest story going forward.

(Photo by Gil Talbot/Associated Press)

We obviously don’t know what will happen to the Redskins from here on out; their next test – and it is a formidable one – comes on Sunday when they host New Orleans.

And if you need racing-only specifics, we’ll point to Jimmie Johnson’s first championship two seasons ago. He came out of New Hampshire with a 39th-place finish and had a lot of ground to make up.

Even in the following weeks, his results were nothing spectacular: 13th, 14th and 24th in the next three races. But then Johnson got hot, finishing second in four of the next five races. That fifth race was a win.

That’s an extreme example. Who among the current field could roll off such a hot streak? Johnson, certainly. Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, certainly. Tony Stewart, maybe if he suddenly finds himself. Jeff Gordon, ditto. Dale Earnhardt Jr., possibly, but would have to show a dramatic improvement than what he’s shown this season.

So if we go on what we know from the first 26 races, there are no more than six drivers – and six at the very most – that could rally back from a miserable first race at Loudon.

That’s not likely to happen, of course, barring some unforeseen wreck or equipment failure. And wrecks at Loudon don’t have to be terribly damaging; a mere spin can be easily overcome, especially if it happens early. Keeping the car off the wall during a spin isn’t an impossible task either, not like it would be at places of much higher speeds.

Assuming the race goes as planned (ha), most of the Chase drivers can be expected to come home with finishes if sixth through 15th. A few will distinguish themselves in the top five, a few others may put themselves behind with the previously-mentioned disaster scenario. It’s the Bell curve, applied to racing.

But in the larger picture, it won’t necessarily mean a whole lot. For those that have bad finishes, it merely reduces the margin of error for the season’s final nine races. But as Johnson showed, it’s not impossible to overcome, particularly for this year’s elite teams.

“We didn’t plan on winning all 16,” Redskins running back Clinton Portis said on Wednesday.

Cup teams will be taking the same tact: No one driver’s going to win all 10 races and no one driver is going to emerge unscathed in all 10 races. Maybe their mulligan will come sooner rather than later.

(There’s a photo on the linked story, so you can get a glimpse of the thing if you haven’t seen it already. When I get back to the office, I’ll try to get a different photo up.)

The Scene Daily story quoted NASCAR’s vice president of competition, Robin Pemberton, as saying that the chassis remain different so that teams won’t be able to apply setups to their Cup cars.

That’s an admirable goal, of course, and one that makes a lot of business sense. The Nationwide series is an important property to NASCAR, and it wouldn’t be smart of them to simply turn the thing into a Sprint Cup Lite.

But the million-dollar question – and if you’ve made it this far, it’s probably already flashed across your mind – is this: Is the quality of Nationwide racing going to be affected?

The COT started off hot in the Cup series, with several close and competitive races during its initial rollout in 2007. But since then (and particularly this year, with the COT in full-time use), the racing quality has gradually degraded. The aerodynamics are such that the car is hard to turn and more problematic for the drivers, who may be less prone to make a daring move that we’ll remember.

That’s if they’re even in a position to make a move for the lead. We’ve seen time and again – and drivers have complained time and again – that while in the lead, the car runs great. If you’re trying to catch the leader, however, you can make a certain amount of progress before the car just stops catching up. And that says nothing of the manufacturers, who will now be even more frustrated that their Cup and Nationwide teams look exactly like every other car on the track.

The idea of COT racing is one that NASCAR cannot ignore. You listen to the drivers, you read the anecdotes, and there are not a lot of people happy about the COT and what it’s brought to the sport. I’ll try to be a glass-half-full kind of guy and say that maybe NASCAR can learn something from the Nationwide COT that could improve racing in the Cup cars.

That’s a lot of maybes. (The unspoken maybe, the biggest one of all, is that NASCAR would use that knowledge to actually improve the Cup cars, which is no guarantee.)

We can only wait and see what happens. Given our collective experience with the Cup COT, I don’t have much hope that this will turn out well, either.

—WE HAVE AN ANTICIPATED day off tomorrow in order to free up time to cover the Washington Redskins’ home opener on Sunday against New Orleans. But we’ll be back Friday (I swear) and we’ll take a look at what Loudon holds in store…

Each Monday, or as early as possible in the week, we’ll repost the list and make adjustments as necessary. On the Monday after Homestead, we’ll revisit this list and see how accurate we really were.
With that said, let’s get into it.

1. Kyle Busch (No. 18 Toyota): He enters the Chase with a 30-point lead over Carl Edwards; Busch would be best-served to make that cushion stand up as long as possible. If Jimmie Johnson or Carl Edwards are able to chip away three or six points a race, Busch is still in good shape; if not, he could fall behind quickly. One reason he’ll win: Eight wins this season and, just as impressively, seven top-fives. One reason he won’t: A lack of friends on the track could leave Busch hanging out to dry.

2. Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Chevy): Johnson has all of the momentum (two straight wins) and the experience (two straight titles) heading into the Chase. Of the three leaders, he is the only one to run the Chase with a legitimate chance at a championship. Crew chief Chad Knaus and Johnson’s crew have been there too. One reason he’ll win: This is the time of year when Johnson shines brightest; he has five wins in the past two Chases. One reason he won’t: The first three tracks aren’t Johnson’s strongest; his last win at New Hampshire, Dover or Kansas came in 2005. If he struggles at all three, he’ll have a lot of ground to make up.

3. Carl Edwards (No. 99 Ford): Though the focus has been on Busch and Johnson, it would certainly be unwise to forget about Edwards, who broadened his resume this season with wins at a superspeedway (Pocono) and a short track (Bristol). But that doesn’t necessarily serve as a predictor, since Talladega isn’t like Pocono and Martinsville isn’t like Bristol. One reason he’ll win: His 19 top-10s are the better than Busch and Johnson; consistency still matters in the Chase. One reason he won’t: Those top-10s won’t matter if Edwards is consistently eighth while Johnson and Busch are battling for wins.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Chevy): His inaugural season at Hendrick hasn’t been what everyone hoped. Yes, Junior has a win, but it was a fuel-mileage victory at Michigan in which the 88 wasn’t necessarily the best car out there. Though he’ll often spend portions of races near the front of the pack, staying there through the end has been problematic for varying reasons. One reason he’ll win: His stated goal of moving to Hendrick was to run for championships; he’s now in position to do so. One reason he won’t: Too much inconsistency, whether through handling or mistakes from crew chief Tony Eury Jr.

5. Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Chevy): Aside from Johnson, no one has closed the regular season better than Harvick; his last finish outside of the top 10 came at Indianapolis. He was 37th there, and even that came on the heels of a third at Chicago. That’s encouraging for Harvick, since the past month’s schedule has been at a wide array of tracks. One reason he’ll win: He and his team are peaking at the right time. One reason he won’t: Wins are a necessity in the Chase. And though Harvick has shown a propensity to run well, his last points win was the 2007 Daytona 500.

6. Jeff Burton (No. 31 Chevy): In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport, Burton hasn’t done much. Though he had a quiet sixth-place finish on Sunday, he hasn’t cracked the top five since the June race at Pocono. In the Chase, that’s not going to get it done. One reason he’ll win: He’s been through too many seasons and will best be able to withstand any poor finishes early. One reason he won’t: He hasn’t been a serious contender for race wins for most of the season (see Harvick).

7. Greg Biffle (No. 16 Ford): What an up-and-down season for Biffle. Amid all of the equipment problems in the spring — and questions about whether he would even return to Roush Fenway — it was hard to see him being any sort of a factor this late in the season. Yet here he is. One reason he’ll win: He has to make up ground on the leaders, but in some respects, he’s done that already by getting into this position. One reason he won’t: Who’s to say those early-season problems won’t rear their ugly heads again?

8. Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Chevy): Given the 2007 he had, it’s still hard to believe that Gordon hasn’t been nearly as competitive this season. When he and Johnson spearheaded Hendrick’s year of dominance, it seemed natural that the momentum would carry over. But it hasn’t. One reason he’ll win: He’s the most accomplished driver of his generation. Would anyone really be surprised to see him there in the end? One reason he won’t: He’s the most accomplished driver of his generation. What does he have to prove?

9. Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Toyota): Hamlin was a safe bet to make the Chase heading into Richmond. Though he was in the precarious 11th position, Richmond was a track he’d always performed well at; really, it would have taken another malfunction like he had in the spring to keep him out of the Chase. One reason he’ll win: Perhaps Hamlin’s comment after a 39th at Michigan (“We don’t even deserve to be in the Chase right now”) was enough to spur him and his team. He’s had three straight third-place finishes since. One reason he won’t: Most of the Chase tracks aren’t among Hamlin’s strong ones.

10. Tony Stewart (No. 20 Toyota): Stewart has had a lot on his plate this season, with buying into Haas CNC Racing (and finding another driver, sponsors and crew) and watching Busch usurp his status as Joe Gibbs Racing’s top driver. Regardless of what he says, they’ve been distractions, and it seems that those distractions have carried over to the track. One reason he’ll win: When he gets hot, no one’s hotter; a few wins in the Chase, which isn’t out of the question, gets him right back in the mix. One reason he won’t: Not every job at Stewart Haas has been filled; will that further take his focus away from racing? And was the post-race radio flare-up with crew chief Greg Zippadelli a sign of things to come?

11. Clint Bowyer (No. 07 Chevy): Remember 2007, when Bowyer was the last man into the Chase? Down the stretch, he was the only driver that posed a threat to the Johnson-Gordon duopoly; he even won the opening race at New Hampshire. He excels at solid but quiet finishes; it should not surprise anyone if he sneaks up on the field yet again. One reason he’ll win: Consistent finishes that no one notices until it’s too late. One reason he won’t: He hasn’t been as strong as last season; for about 50 laps on Sunday, he was out of the Chase.

12. Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Ford): Sunday was a miserable day for Kenseth; he was 39th after an early-race collision with teammate David Ragan put Kenseth in a hole he couldn’t recover from. He’ll need help from those above him to be a factor in the Chase. One reason he’ll win: He’s Mr. Consistency; this year alone, he’s had stretches of seven and three races with nothing but top-10 finishes. His championship was a direct result of that consistency. One reason he won’t: He’s not the been the best car in the Roush stable and, at times, he’s not been as good as Ragan.

(Photo by Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press)

Fortunately it wasn’t catastrophic. Track president Doug Fritz was announcing that he and the staff at RIR are aware of what could happen with Tropical Storm (and, perhaps, Hurricane) Hanna. The statement, in its entirety:

“Given the projected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, we are working closely with NASCAR, as well as state and local government officials, to monitor the path and potential impact of the storm.  As always, the safety of our fans, competitors and the local community is of the utmost importance to Richmond International Raceway. This weekend’s events are currently scheduled to run as planned but we will provide updates at http://www.rir.com and 877-251-7223, as to their status at least twice daily, or as needed.

“Fans who have purchased ticket insurance and have questions specific to the insurance can call World Access at 800-628-6188.”

Good to know they’re looking into it on their end. But all we — and they — can do is to watch and wait.

If Hanna takes an unexpected path or dawdles around in the Caribbean, it could miss the Mid-Atlantic altogether. That doesn’t seem likely, however.

NOAA’s current forecast cone has it approaching an the coast between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, S.C., then bouncing off and tracking up the coast. That’s an important distinction; staying over water could keep the storm more potent. Over land, the storm is robbed of its energy source and slowly fades away.

Though the projected track is well east of Richmond — and likely away from the strongest winds — it seems all of us in the eastern half of the state are due for a soaker.

If Richmond winds up with just a sustained period of rain, it won’t be a big deal. The race could be postponed a day or two, as has happened many times.

But there is a chance that the storm takes a different path. Or maybe the rain is more relentless. That would change the equation entirely.

If the whole weekend has to be scrapped, which isn’t beyond the realm of possibility, then NASCAR has some decisions to make. Do they set the Chase field based on 25 races, not 26? Or do they simply make next weekend’s race at New Hampshire the Chase cutoff and pop Richmond into a later date?

If so, when would the Richmond race be run? There are no off dates in the Chase; yet if Richmond were plunked at the end of the schedule, you can bet the folks at Ford would be none too happy that their race sponsorship at Homestead suddenly became obsolete.

Until we know exactly where the storm is headed and exactly what kind of a punch it will land when it arrives, all we can do is guess and ride out the storm. And hope that NASCAR and RIR are considering all the possibilities.

(Photo by NOAA via the Associated Press)