But now that NASCAR has moved into the postseason, I’m hoping to minimize the number of days we skip. It’s time for 12 drivers to buckle down, and it’s time we did the same.
Speaking of those 12 drivers, we’ll take today to list how we see the Chase playing out. The 12 who made the field will be ranked, and the list will be adjusted as the Chase moves forward.
Each Monday, or as early as possible in the week, we’ll repost the list and make adjustments as necessary. On the Monday after Homestead, we’ll revisit this list and see how accurate we really were.
With that said, let’s get into it.
1. Kyle Busch (No. 18 Toyota): He enters the Chase with a 30-point lead over Carl Edwards; Busch would be best-served to make that cushion stand up as long as possible. If Jimmie Johnson or Carl Edwards are able to chip away three or six points a race, Busch is still in good shape; if not, he could fall behind quickly. One reason he’ll win: Eight wins this season and, just as impressively, seven top-fives. One reason he won’t: A lack of friends on the track could leave Busch hanging out to dry.
2. Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Chevy): Johnson has all of the momentum (two straight wins) and the experience (two straight titles) heading into the Chase. Of the three leaders, he is the only one to run the Chase with a legitimate chance at a championship. Crew chief Chad Knaus and Johnson’s crew have been there too. One reason he’ll win: This is the time of year when Johnson shines brightest; he has five wins in the past two Chases. One reason he won’t: The first three tracks aren’t Johnson’s strongest; his last win at New Hampshire, Dover or Kansas came in 2005. If he struggles at all three, he’ll have a lot of ground to make up.
3. Carl Edwards (No. 99 Ford): Though the focus has been on Busch and Johnson, it would certainly be unwise to forget about Edwards, who broadened his resume this season with wins at a superspeedway (Pocono) and a short track (Bristol). But that doesn’t necessarily serve as a predictor, since Talladega isn’t like Pocono and Martinsville isn’t like Bristol. One reason he’ll win: His 19 top-10s are the better than Busch and Johnson; consistency still matters in the Chase. One reason he won’t: Those top-10s won’t matter if Edwards is consistently eighth while Johnson and Busch are battling for wins.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Chevy): His inaugural season at Hendrick hasn’t been what everyone hoped. Yes, Junior has a win, but it was a fuel-mileage victory at Michigan in which the 88 wasn’t necessarily the best car out there. Though he’ll often spend portions of races near the front of the pack, staying there through the end has been problematic for varying reasons. One reason he’ll win: His stated goal of moving to Hendrick was to run for championships; he’s now in position to do so. One reason he won’t: Too much inconsistency, whether through handling or mistakes from crew chief Tony Eury Jr.
5. Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Chevy): Aside from Johnson, no one has closed the regular season better than Harvick; his last finish outside of the top 10 came at Indianapolis. He was 37th there, and even that came on the heels of a third at Chicago. That’s encouraging for Harvick, since the past month’s schedule has been at a wide array of tracks. One reason he’ll win: He and his team are peaking at the right time. One reason he won’t: Wins are a necessity in the Chase. And though Harvick has shown a propensity to run well, his last points win was the 2007 Daytona 500.
6. Jeff Burton (No. 31 Chevy): In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sport, Burton hasn’t done much. Though he had a quiet sixth-place finish on Sunday, he hasn’t cracked the top five since the June race at Pocono. In the Chase, that’s not going to get it done. One reason he’ll win: He’s been through too many seasons and will best be able to withstand any poor finishes early. One reason he won’t: He hasn’t been a serious contender for race wins for most of the season (see Harvick).
7. Greg Biffle (No. 16 Ford): What an up-and-down season for Biffle. Amid all of the equipment problems in the spring — and questions about whether he would even return to Roush Fenway — it was hard to see him being any sort of a factor this late in the season. Yet here he is. One reason he’ll win: He has to make up ground on the leaders, but in some respects, he’s done that already by getting into this position. One reason he won’t: Who’s to say those early-season problems won’t rear their ugly heads again?
8. Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Chevy): Given the 2007 he had, it’s still hard to believe that Gordon hasn’t been nearly as competitive this season. When he and Johnson spearheaded Hendrick’s year of dominance, it seemed natural that the momentum would carry over. But it hasn’t. One reason he’ll win: He’s the most accomplished driver of his generation. Would anyone really be surprised to see him there in the end? One reason he won’t: He’s the most accomplished driver of his generation. What does he have to prove?
9. Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Toyota): Hamlin was a safe bet to make the Chase heading into Richmond. Though he was in the precarious 11th position, Richmond was a track he’d always performed well at; really, it would have taken another malfunction like he had in the spring to keep him out of the Chase. One reason he’ll win: Perhaps Hamlin’s comment after a 39th at Michigan (“We don’t even deserve to be in the Chase right now”) was enough to spur him and his team. He’s had three straight third-place finishes since. One reason he won’t: Most of the Chase tracks aren’t among Hamlin’s strong ones.
10. Tony Stewart (No. 20 Toyota): Stewart has had a lot on his plate this season, with buying into Haas CNC Racing (and finding another driver, sponsors and crew) and watching Busch usurp his status as Joe Gibbs Racing’s top driver. Regardless of what he says, they’ve been distractions, and it seems that those distractions have carried over to the track. One reason he’ll win: When he gets hot, no one’s hotter; a few wins in the Chase, which isn’t out of the question, gets him right back in the mix. One reason he won’t: Not every job at Stewart Haas has been filled; will that further take his focus away from racing? And was the post-race radio flare-up with crew chief Greg Zippadelli a sign of things to come?
11. Clint Bowyer (No. 07 Chevy): Remember 2007, when Bowyer was the last man into the Chase? Down the stretch, he was the only driver that posed a threat to the Johnson-Gordon duopoly; he even won the opening race at New Hampshire. He excels at solid but quiet finishes; it should not surprise anyone if he sneaks up on the field yet again. One reason he’ll win: Consistent finishes that no one notices until it’s too late. One reason he won’t: He hasn’t been as strong as last season; for about 50 laps on Sunday, he was out of the Chase.
12. Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Ford): Sunday was a miserable day for Kenseth; he was 39th after an early-race collision with teammate David Ragan put Kenseth in a hole he couldn’t recover from. He’ll need help from those above him to be a factor in the Chase. One reason he’ll win: He’s Mr. Consistency; this year alone, he’s had stretches of seven and three races with nothing but top-10 finishes. His championship was a direct result of that consistency. One reason he won’t: He’s not the been the best car in the Roush stable and, at times, he’s not been as good as Ragan.
(Photo by Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press)
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Before I get started, let me first apologize for the dearth of posts lately. Last week was a killer, when it seemed like whenever something got done, another thing popped up that also needed doing. Even into Monday, that was the case.