So we’ll look past all of the potential mechanical failures and getting caught up innocently in wrecks. But it’s a sure thing that one of the nine remaining Chase contenders will have a bad race. Who, of course, is the million-dollar question.
Using starts and finishes from races at California, all intermediate tracks and their last five races, we can make our best guess as to who will fare well on Sunday. Note that this isn’t an overall race prediction, but just a prediction on where the nine contenders will wind up.
The numbers are start/finish average in each of the following categories: (1) all-time at California, (2) 2006 intermediate track races, (3) last two years at intermediate races, (4) last five races overall.
Early next week, we’ll revisit this and see how we did.

KASEY KAHNE
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 8.6/13; (2) 2006: 9/6.75; (3) two-year average: 10/15.23; (4) last five: 11/21.
Trend: Tied for series lead with four wins, and all four came at intermediate tracks (Atlanta, Texas, Lowe’s, Michigan). Outside of wins, results have been among the best of the nine contenders. Reversing a trend of sub-par intermediate track finishes in 2005.
Predicted finish: 2.

MARK MARTIN
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 12.3/13.83; (2) 2006: 12.3/5.3; (3) two-year average: 12.2/7.15; (4) last five: 19.6/15.4.
Trend: Only one start and one finish outside of the top 20 at intermediate tracks this season. Results at California historically have been mixed, but trend upwards in the past two seasons. Has had top-five finishes in alternating weeks since New Hampshire; should be his turn for a good finish again.
Predicted finish: 3.

JEFF GORDON
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 12.5/12.3; (2) 2006: 10.5/10.83; (3) two-year average: 10.56/14.61; (4) last five: 10/7.8.
Trend: Historically strong at intermediate tracks and recently strong should add up to a good day for the 24. Could clinch berth into the Chase.
Predicted finish: 5.

KYLE BUSCH
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 12.75/14.5; (2) 2006: 19.17/12.33; (3) two-year average: 18.28/14.45; (4) last five: 17.6/13.
Trend: Will need a better qualifying effort than he’s had at mid-sized tracks this season — his 19.17 is second-worst of the nine. But Busch has shown the ability to make up lost ground. A top-10 will put him on, and possibly over, the verge of clinching.
Predicted finish: 8.

KEVIN HARVICK
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 23.25/21.88; (2) 2006: 13.5/15.75; (3) two-year average: 17.99/16.66; (4) last five: 8.2/6.2.
Trend: Hottest driver of the nine contenders, but goes to a track that, historically, has not been his best. Still, Harvick is much better at mid-sized tracks this season than he was a year ago. But it’s tough to turn a blind eye to history.
Predicted finish: 10.

DENNY HAMLIN
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 5/12; (2) 2006: 9.25/13.5; (3) two-year average: N/A; (4) last five: 8/7.2.
Trend: So little history makes it tough to get an accurate picture for the rookie. Until last week, his best finishes had been at intermediates and superspeedways. All of the numbers trend towards a top-15.
Predicted finish: 11.

JEFF BURTON
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 20.59/16.42; (2) 2006: 11.58/10.3; (3) two-year average: 20.51/14.13; (4) last five: 5.2/17.2.
Trend: Great qualifying, poor results as of late. Yet Burton’s intermediate results have improved dramatically since 2005 (29.43 average start, 17.96 average finish). A 42nd at Michigan broke an eight-race streak of 11th-place finishes or better at intermediate tracks.
Predicted finish: 13.

DALE EARNHARDT JR.
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 21.78/21.22; (2) 2006: 21/13.25; (3) two-year average: 22.65/17.1; (4) last five: 25/15.2.
Trend: Intermediate tracks have never been one of Junior’s — or DEI’s — strong suits. Only four of Earnhardt’s 18 career wins have come at intermediates, even though they comprise the majority of the schedule. Recent trends have been decidedly mixed as well; Earnhardt’s been either really good or really bad.
Predicted finish: 17.

TONY STEWART
By the numbers: (1) at Cali: 15.3/18.7; (2) 2006: 15.17/21.92; (3) two-year average: 14.21/16.99; (4) last five: 18.2/8.4.
Trend: In winning the Nextel Cup championship a year ago, Stewart ran extremely well at mid-sized tracks (13.24 average start, 12.05 average finish). Those numbers have taken an extreme dive this season; he’s finishing nearly 10 spots worse than last year. Stewart’s incredible talent could be enough to erase the trend, but where there’s smoke…
Predicted finish: 20.